NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe09b480fb5e0d9295ee9ffa0397814b05cf6b93e8bcbf6028fa9d702463f0c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Lakers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Pelicans | 44c | 31,433$13,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,602.58 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers | 56c | 20,000$11,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,204.9 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Lakers | 56c | 14,006$7,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,843.57 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans | 46c | 8,011$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.89 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2ad2backed Lakers | 52c | 3,900$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5442…6fa7backed Pelicans | 48c | 3,900$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Pelicans | 45c | 3,600$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.97 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Pelicans | 48c | 3,000$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.99 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 45c | 2,017$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Lakers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lakers | 54c | 1,604$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.95 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Lakers | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 46c | 1,327$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Pelicans | 46c | 1,300$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.94 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 54c | 1,254$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pelicans | 44c | 1,120$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.2 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Lakers | 56c | 1,020$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.2 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Pelicans | 44c | 1,011$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.16 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Lakers | 54c | 950$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 48c | 948.76$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Lakers | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 52c | 802.92$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers | 55c | 777$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.63 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lakers | 53c | 764$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.92 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Lakers | 53c | 754.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Lakers | 55c | 750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans | 47c | 637.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.1 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Pelicans | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lakers | 54c | 486$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.04 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Pelicans | 45c | 452.5$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.88 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Pelicans | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Lakers | 52c | 246.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Lakers | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060e…2384backed Lakers | 51c | 200.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Lakers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lakers | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Pelicans | 49c | 113$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Lakers | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 45c | 103.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Pelicans | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Lakers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Lakers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked Lakers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 310 | 55.5%172 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Lakers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…750fbacked Lakers | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…6135backed Pelicans | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Lakers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Pelicans | 20c | 72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Pelicans | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Lakers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Lakers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed Pelicans | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…3aa8backed Lakers | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Lakers | 53c | 41.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pelicans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6b…e7fabacked Pelicans | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Pelicans | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Lakers | 55c | 39.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…b3d7backed Lakers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Lakers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…1531backed Pelicans | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…eadcbacked Lakers | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-14.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. LakersLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-15.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.