NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x927bf273b745175870a5bf9586dd696e6fdbdcba64e70e8ef2d9a4a7d300b5cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 35c | 5,800$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 65c | 3,259$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.26 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Over | 41c | 1,232$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.86 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 1,213$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 59c | 606.8$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.22 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 61c | 567$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.87 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 39c | 556$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.39 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 532.8$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 59c | 479.1$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.67 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 66c | 375$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 65c | 314.82$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 62c | 248$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 66c | 242$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 210.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Over | 66c | 203.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 38c | 167.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 66c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 53c | 124.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Under | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 65c | 92.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 91.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Under | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 38c | 53.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 41c | 46.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 66c | 40.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 35c | 32.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b09…382cbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…fa14backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b651backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5this page
- Pelicans vs. LakersLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-14.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Lakers (-15.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.