NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f3ba44e1a9c3bd21393a3a182ab8743dd72fe8e9a574c54bc19134dff44b7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 50c | 26,644$13,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,209.3 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 20,020$9,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,909.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 2,121$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.79 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 1,759$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 1,406$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 883.92$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 48c | 768$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.36 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 8c | 636.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…87fcbacked Under | 54c | 578$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 51c | 410$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Under | 55c | 52.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 52c | 30.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…95fabacked Over | 48c | 30.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5this page
- Pelicans vs. LakersLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-14.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Lakers (-15.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.