NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab74ca1d9779da538cb1297bffa7a5e0092124a39229b8879b611b8ba023a704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 6,820$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Over | 53c | 6,341$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,983.86 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 54c | 1,941$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.81 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,568$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.52 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 1,527$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,406$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 997.14$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.71 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 57c | 470$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…56a2backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…da9cbacked Over | 54c | 184.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 41.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 54c | 30.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…3f61backed Over | 54c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5this page
- Pelicans vs. LakersLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-14.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Lakers (-15.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.