TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will Aaron Judge win the 2025 AL MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$375,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$385,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16ff…b518backed Yes50c36,097$18,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,048.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a31…f46cbacked No50c36,097$18,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,048.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31d4…9930backed Yes60c33,956$20,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,582.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d62…2af9backed No40c33,956$13,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,582.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb6…f761backed Yes50c23,355$11,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,677.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c03…40edbacked No50c23,355$11,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,677.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8e…d302backed Yes49c18,256$8,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,310.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…0c5bbacked No51c18,256$9,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,310.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Yes77c9,650$7,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.544456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b78…bb3fbacked No30c6,576$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes62c5,612$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.7124250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes55c5,439$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.228125.9%21 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Yes47c4,169$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.646536.9%24 W · 41 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed No6c3,775$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No15c3,000$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.443132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,742$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.333929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes49c2,369$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.671060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked No42c2,341$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.852334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed No7c2,280$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.617348%83 W · 90 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f9…aaffbacked Yes73c2,024$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…2e53backed Yes34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.991838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes58c1,929$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.347035.7%25 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec6…cd1fbacked Yes74c1,552$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49b…2943backed No9c1,503$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d19…4513backed Yes73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0c…8ffcbacked Yes73c1,361$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.581776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+40%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb58…b4d8backed Yes59c1,359$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No16c1,252$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.618530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes56c1,032$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.79955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No20c969.41$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes69c875.63$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.841275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes75c856.03$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.074445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No16c807.19$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.11952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No50c666.97$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No13c652.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No22c624.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.688139.5%32 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed Yes78c543.99$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.68850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed No49c523$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes5c522.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.41714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes78c500.3$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.432020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes29c498$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.727437.8%28 W · 46 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc626…2beabacked No20c497.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004434.1%15 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes49c451$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.494,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes66c444$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.962171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked No35c428.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-80.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No4c410.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb2…7a1cbacked Yes52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No31c385.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.55333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed No10c335.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.089843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No51c333.36$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No52c320$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.263942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8236…7c8cbacked Yes74c305.99$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.62123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No64c286$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.948356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9411…271cbacked Yes36c276$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes75c274.03$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6813353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes78c261.7$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0234044.4%151 W · 189 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No35c260$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.321545.1%97 W · 118 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes79c250$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No22c247.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9938741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes56c225.61$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.852263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No25c222.95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.761040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd77b…24abbacked Yes69c214.74$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes42c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.516347.2%77 W · 86 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e01…c7b9backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes70c199.5$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.821850%9 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked No17c188.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.752035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a86…e845backed Yes70c188.49$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…20ebbacked Yes43c185.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.111650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6223…cedbbacked Yes54c182.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Yes68c180$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No44c164.84$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-78.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7049450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes69c152.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.587041.4%29 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No18c141.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7916248.8%79 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x984d…3bb2backed Yes75c132.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2193…6cd6backed Yes78c124.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fc…ddc6backed Yes63c121.12$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.51662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No21c118$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c3…973ebacked No17c117.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd3…f7d3backed No40c115$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.153135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No47c114$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x393e…7b02backed Yes71c102.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.533063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes72c100.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2888549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c6d…e289backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03c1…8d30backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes74c95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842f…1399backed Yes75c93.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes71c79.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.952751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No17c77.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes72c76.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.212937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c3…5350backed Yes79c74.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.421080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Yes70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed Yes77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed No34c69.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.822540%10 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes56c69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3616945%76 W · 93 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked Yes79c65.57$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.