NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d554af0905ab38e4aa65c70385fb4ff893867cf546c9324ca3583c73167ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 9,935$4,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,101.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd1…da41backed Under | 51c | 3,900$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ec…55ebbacked Over | 49c | 3,900$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 2,171$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.37 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Under | 52c | 1,067$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 42c | 1,004$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 53c | 769.21$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.84 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 37c | 765$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.02 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 584.99$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.34 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Under | 52c | 526.92$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 9c | 250$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 190.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…35d6backed Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…2462backed Over | 46c | 166$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 156$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 144$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…0a1ebacked Under | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 42c | 99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…435cbacked Under | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…a1a1backed Under | 54c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…acd8backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccb…a193backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.