NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65487a71a05c1ebade6c78e5175b4edd3b78d378db63432c575baf64e84d02b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 1,643$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 49c | 1,592$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 52c | 1,521$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.08 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 385.14$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 315.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Over | 54c | 163.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Over | 52c | 99.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.