NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff86e6544a2e598826a852f74b48e94577628219e1886c091e0e113a1b1456b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 15,000$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,939.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 7,679$4,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,532.27 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 47c | 7,396$3,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,446.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 46c | 5,027$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.54 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 47c | 2,279$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 47c | 2,088$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.52 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Thunder | 46c | 1,721$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.66 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,010$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.8 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 46c | 946$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 896.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.43 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Thunder | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Thunder | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 541.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.16 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 531$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Thunder | 46c | 503.48$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 46c | 395.58$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 331.76$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 52c | 281.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Thunder | 48c | 279.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 254.62$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 251.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Thunder | 46c | 248.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d19fbacked Thunder | 47c | 235.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Thunder | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Thunder | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Thunder | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder | 46c | 199.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Thunder | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 121.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…04bebacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Thunder | 46c | 73.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 69.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Thunder | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Thunder | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6169backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Thunder | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 33.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…196ebacked Thunder | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Thunder | 50c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…83a0backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec1…f195backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.