NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542ceddb1e14a19a0f48821f2796864856500f8f6869ee26bef1973f2e955b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Thunder | 50c | 59,113$29,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,556.27 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Thunder | 51c | 57,074$28,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,875.26 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 54,614$26,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,616.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 29,838$14,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,919.04 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Thunder | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 6,843$3,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,490.18 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Thunder | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 3,722$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Thunder | 51c | 2,770$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.72 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Thunder | 61c | 2,120$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.6 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 2,012$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…243cbacked Thunder | 51c | 1,959$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,668$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 50c | 1,500$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.75 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 1,242$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…cf3abacked Thunder | 51c | 698.02$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Thunder | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Trail Blazers | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 409.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Thunder | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Thunder | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…edecbacked Thunder | 46c | 232.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Trail Blazers | 40c | 206.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…56a2backed Thunder | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…2854backed Thunder | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Thunder | 51c | 172.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Trail Blazers | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Thunder | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Thunder | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Thunder | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Thunder | 51c | 79.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Thunder | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 51.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Thunder | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Thunder | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…28fbbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.