NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edee55aaedf32d9b9a4a2599ffb606823410da9ab97ddbc071a232718dd9b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Thunder | 45c | 3,900$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…eec3backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 3,900$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 44c | 856.04$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 46c | 734$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 649.24$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.65 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c94fbacked Thunder | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 488.97$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.47 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 406$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 199.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Thunder | 46c | 146.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 47c | 109$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…a8eebacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 92.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Thunder | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 45c | 57.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6b…e7fabacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…7129backed Thunder | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 29.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.