NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8239b5e042c696baa540bf47ab71be5e8f96106b28b5a1a330b292c3d5dda94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 60c | 3,258$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.2 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 2,718$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 1,205$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.07 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 40c | 1,056$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.96 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 55c | 1,053$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.97 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…6ee5backed Under | 42c | 550$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…6bdcbacked Over | 58c | 550$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 63c | 316.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 189$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…2c4ebacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 139.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 59c | 130.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 116$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 41c | 111.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…ac33backed Over | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.