UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48df91c4c7dbe17f7b0b7db7c87b6a9f1ce1ba132ca9682481c7a8396612d371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 65c | 13,060$8,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,515.1 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 63c | 11,370$7,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.72 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed No | 64c | 10,000$6,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.93 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…b93bbacked Yes | 37c | 8,210$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…6c2cbacked Yes | 38c | 7,837$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd114…b5b3backed No | 62c | 5,903$3,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 64c | 4,674$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.76 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 34c | 4,093$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…d535backed Yes | 35c | 3,552$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 62c | 2,841$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.73 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…db6dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,560$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…95c4backed Yes | 37c | 2,401$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…bdb0backed No | 64c | 2,208$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.33 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked No | 63c | 1,857$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…561bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 63c | 1,207$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.58 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…6701backed Yes | 35c | 1,144$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 34c | 1,108$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.62 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7185…4896backed Yes | 37c | 1,050$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 37c | 1,024$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked No | 65c | 1,003$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.63 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 37c | 813.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 803.29$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.29 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 30c | 713.71$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Yes | 36c | 680.07$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 65c | 668.17$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.86 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Yes | 37c | 666.54$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.62 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked No | 65c | 656.46$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…f93dbacked Yes | 38c | 631.32$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 58c | 600.25$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.04 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…c4c9backed Yes | 36c | 552.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…d16ebacked Yes | 37c | 545.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2124…4610backed Yes | 37c | 536.65$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 36c | 519.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…374ebacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…845ebacked Yes | 34c | 460$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…7a99backed Yes | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Yes | 34c | 440$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…5a43backed Yes | 52c | 386.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 62c | 384.8$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed No | 65c | 369.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…3d83backed Yes | 36c | 358.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…611cbacked Yes | 38c | 350.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 47c | 330.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 66c | 321.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 65c | 306.15$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d91…2109backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…1b8abacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…2cbfbacked Yes | 35c | 277.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…beeebacked Yes | 37c | 268.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d3…5919backed Yes | 35c | 261.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9250…5a2ebacked Yes | 34c | 261.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…5d75backed Yes | 36c | 259.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69e…1385backed Yes | 36c | 244.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Yes | 36c | 243.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…bf7abacked Yes | 35c | 238$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b3…b809backed Yes | 36c | 236.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Yes | 33c | 235.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2b…1260backed Yes | 37c | 233.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…e9d5backed Yes | 36c | 208.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…eab3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…bb8bbacked Yes | 36c | 191.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed No | 66c | 190$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…a8f9backed Yes | 35c | 187.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Yes | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…1805backed Yes | 36c | 160.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…0cf4backed Yes | 36c | 158.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4446backed Yes | 52c | 149.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…a1e0backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…012cbacked Yes | 35c | 143.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf29…97b8backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…8471backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99a…49abbacked Yes | 35c | 139.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…08ebbacked Yes | 34c | 135.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 56c | 134.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 61c | 131$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…a277backed Yes | 45c | 120.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 35c | 117.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…c91fbacked Yes | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9b…4ba5backed Yes | 35c | 113.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 64c | 110.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…b9edbacked Yes | 35c | 110.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88c…078fbacked Yes | 45c | 108.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…47e2backed Yes | 44c | 106.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…be66backed Yes | 38c | 105.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…dcd5backed Yes | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…6016backed No | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…5523backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5b…d055backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732a…aa57backed Yes | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26b…b2adbacked Yes | 36c | 99.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Islam Makhachev won
- Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.