UFC · resolved market
Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490c89140ab38e7849d24908248b8e6dea203337f951595806764d10cdd81d8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81a6…b93bbacked Yes | 14c | 7,070$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…95c4backed Yes | 8c | 4,679$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fc…a05ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,670$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 11c | 3,202$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 12c | 1,158$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Yes | 10c | 1,150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…939bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,130$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 10c | 971.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…d384backed Yes | 10c | 952.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…9c3bbacked Yes | 10c | 938.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 11c | 931.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da2…73a1backed Yes | 11c | 923.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…f86fbacked Yes | 11c | 874.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…5b51backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 12c | 775.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…16a8backed Yes | 9c | 532.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3c…1c3dbacked Yes | 10c | 519.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…08ebbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348d…f679backed Yes | 10c | 484$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…f46dbacked Yes | 11c | 472.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…0521backed Yes | 10c | 423.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…ef8bbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 10c | 384.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…3c52backed Yes | 16c | 326.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 9c | 320.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…2c43backed Yes | 9c | 320.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Yes | 10c | 319.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 316.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…62ebbacked Yes | 11c | 266.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2f…5468backed Yes | 15c | 265.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9247…02fbbacked Yes | 11c | 263.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…4d7bbacked Yes | 9c | 231.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9b…4ba5backed Yes | 12c | 216.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…8ba9backed Yes | 15c | 204.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd7…8bd8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…7d22backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…3b1cbacked Yes | 17c | 199.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99a…49abbacked Yes | 15c | 197.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…7ef4backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…7f64backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…e528backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…12b8backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…d4e4backed Yes | 9c | 133.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…573ebacked Yes | 10c | 129.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…a0eebacked Yes | 10c | 126.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4446backed Yes | 27c | 123.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e04…fc04backed Yes | 11c | 111.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb44…2399backed Yes | 10c | 103.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086b…7cdabacked Yes | 15c | 101.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 11c | 100.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…a8f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…3313backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…b0f0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Islam Makhachev won
- Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.