UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1c23639aed74d01e483414937c1d75bba354c7ca85e8b7f9d6a3cdedbd97dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed No | 79c | 5,057$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.6 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…95c4backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…ce4cbacked Yes | 22c | 3,579$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.16 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 21c | 2,330$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 78c | 2,329$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.66 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 16c | 1,921$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +125%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…561bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,863$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…f5bbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,713$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 75c | 1,508$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.08 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 1,341$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 1,322$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 80c | 1,150$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.19 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 76c | 821.15$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 22c | 664.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 21c | 546.18$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…a3f0backed Yes | 18c | 486.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Yes | 21c | 476$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 79c | 432.17$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 9c | 421.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Yes | 20c | 384.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 382.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…4b30backed Yes | 23c | 298.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 291.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…1805backed Yes | 15c | 283.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffe…8eddbacked Yes | 18c | 274.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…16a8backed Yes | 20c | 247.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 16c | 245.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 229$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 19c | 200.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 20c | 196.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8d…8ed9backed Yes | 16c | 182.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…dcd5backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…02a1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…4d7bbacked Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…42ecbacked Yes | 34c | 145.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…7d22backed Yes | 22c | 133.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Yes | 20c | 127.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…c958backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 78c | 124.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…fb42backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4515…d5b4backed Yes | 24c | 110.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 71c | 108.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…4e3dbacked Yes | 19c | 106.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347e…4d06backed Yes | 20c | 105.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb44…2399backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…a2a5backed Yes | 17c | 98.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…4e01backed Yes | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4446backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b7…b0dcbacked Yes | 17c | 67.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5727…0781backed Yes | 22c | 66.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…d31dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38b…380fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa3…6721backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…53d5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347d…098abacked No | 65c | 45.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 78c | 32.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 78c | 14.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Islam Makhachev won
- Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.