UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa3c11d0aa2866858dd2a46029e391698d9ae67d8c343f661cd2f0d2706c9ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 58c | 80,000$46,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,599.99 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Under | 42c | 53,111$22,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,274.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…7c30backed Under | 42c | 18,500$7,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 58c | 5,089$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.21 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 42c | 3,888$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.96 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4608…d049backed Under | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…74abbacked Under | 41c | 2,447$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 41c | 2,364$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.89 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Under | 42c | 1,977$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…bdb0backed Over | 56c | 1,529$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 42c | 1,178$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.76 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 57c | 965.68$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.83 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 44c | 925.75$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.33 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 10c | 911.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 726.71$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.3 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 56c | 601.72$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0d…f8bebacked Under | 45c | 553.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…2b0bbacked Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…374ebacked Over | 58c | 450$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Under | 44c | 411.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cfffbacked Under | 43c | 345$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Under | 44c | 343.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Under | 42c | 299.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 59c | 276$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 42c | 234.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 41c | 231.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…1747backed Under | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 59c | 202$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 59c | 148$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…90e9backed Under | 41c | 140.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Over | 60c | 138.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…afa8backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38b…380fbacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…fa2bbacked Under | 44c | 111.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 44c | 110.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2df…a357backed Under | 46c | 105.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…bea1backed Over | 60c | 97.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 94.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…a827backed Under | 44c | 84.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Under | 41c | 77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Over | 55c | 73.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…6eb8backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Over | 58c | 68.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Over | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Under | 43c | 57.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…04f1backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 41c | 47.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d6…8b5fbacked Under | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 42c | 36.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Over | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6710…3374backed Under | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…0f92backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…6bb4backed Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Islam Makhachev won
- Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.