UFC · resolved market
Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f8a45212d56596e99327a4369eae646a7d7de69acc23b3bd134a24180f10cda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Yes | 11c | 52,108$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,730.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…04a9backed Yes | 15c | 19,012$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…95c4backed Yes | 13c | 3,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…5d75backed Yes | 12c | 1,780$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…276dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,204$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…f09ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,032$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…e1c1backed Yes | 12c | 964$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…2e00backed Yes | 12c | 938.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 11c | 860.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Yes | 13c | 743.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 12c | 627.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…73b6backed Yes | 12c | 567.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5d…da56backed Yes | 10c | 565.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…b0b2backed Yes | 14c | 518.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 512.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 9c | 499.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…3c52backed Yes | 20c | 475$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…ef34backed Yes | 12c | 447.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Yes | 11c | 413.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…16a8backed Yes | 12c | 400.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a2…5a5fbacked Yes | 12c | 392.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…96ddbacked Yes | 12c | 390.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…08ebbacked Yes | 13c | 389.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…c29cbacked Yes | 13c | 380.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…261bbacked Yes | 12c | 379.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 12c | 375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…f338backed Yes | 13c | 371.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…3a29backed Yes | 13c | 318$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348d…f679backed Yes | 12c | 267.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…dcbfbacked Yes | 10c | 251.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…3fd5backed Yes | 10c | 242.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…7b64backed Yes | 12c | 241.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…6ca8backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 9c | 225.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…2476backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e1…336dbacked Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…fb42backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb6…9200backed Yes | 11c | 172.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…a2a5backed Yes | 10c | 167.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 11c | 164.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…12fcbacked Yes | 9c | 132.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d0…2527backed Yes | 12c | 125.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…42ecbacked Yes | 33c | 123$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4a…c640backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f4…76abbacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…eebfbacked Yes | 10c | 101.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9a…fd96backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…4e3dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…87ecbacked Yes | 16c | 92.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb44…2399backed Yes | 13c | 79.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f3…ae3bbacked Yes | 13c | 78.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Islam Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.