Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44936c9c7e1b3ccdbf40db477248a181e24f98473a78440eda2f38add598f4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 5c | 10,916$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.65 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 6c | 4,999$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.91 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 6c | 4,887$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 6c | 4,882$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.76 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…8230backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 6c | 1,249$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 6c | 1,011$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked No | 7c | 888$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 56c | 371$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed No | 10c | 337.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed Yes | 73c | 318.42$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 26c | 303$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 6c | 290$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 58c | 229$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?this page
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.