Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7738f29dcda2926475dd9f3603ea7c81c0a71628c5c86749be942be6374bf42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,734$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 52c | 1,714$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.23 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…9133backed Yes | 31c | 1,583$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 76c | 1,316$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.78 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,051$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 74c | 976.85$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.48 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 48c | 899.75$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.87 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Yes | 48c | 827.12$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 53c | 594.98$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.08 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 51c | 492.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 49c | 489.89$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.42 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 485.74$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.82 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 47c | 425$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 52c | 400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 51c | 342.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.74 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 316.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 49c | 306.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 53c | 304.21$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 52c | 299.89$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked No | 55c | 273.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…6eafbacked Yes | 44c | 228.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…c64bbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…8c53backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…e80cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…c3f9backed No | 60c | 166.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Yes | 47c | 153.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcebd…2502backed Yes | 46c | 138.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d2…208dbacked Yes | 47c | 126.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 64c | 119$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…9af0backed Yes | 46c | 117.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +280.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Yes | 48c | 73.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9d…348dbacked Yes | 53c | 58.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…4129backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…5feabacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…13c5backed Yes | 46c | 25.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe844…df88backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked No | 53c | 25.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?this page
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.