Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfda26a0b99965f4ba3553e487db7aa66a0348168a5a89d65dbc5acc01afe0cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a74…312fbacked No | 13c | 1,151$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 53c | 700$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 48c | 599.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 47c | 500$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 50c | 445$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 405$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 47c | 326$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 71c | 316.27$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 47c | 312$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 50c | 290.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed Yes | 53c | 259.38$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed No | 59c | 236$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 41c | 226$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 53c | 126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked No | 42c | 103.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5035…cf0dbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 64c | 97.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 40c | 61.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8207…7edbbacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 49c | 26.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?this page
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.