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Europa Conference League · resolved market

Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,860 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes5c6,396$306 inLost-$305.859046.7%42 W · 48 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes6c4,111$247 inLost-$246.651,31950.8%670 W · 649 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes6c3,995$240 inLost-$239.7189648.2%432 W · 464 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes6c3,723$223 inLost-$223.411,20047.4%569 W · 631 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd100…8230backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost-$802429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes6c987.66$59 inLost-$59.262751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Yes7c756.97$53 inLost-$52.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d2…bd22backed Yes11c636.27$70 inLost-$69.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c620.99$12 inLost-$12.422913.8%4 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes55c300$165 inLost-$1651735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No45c300$135 inWon+$1651931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7eb…a668backed Yes8c300$24 inLost-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd97…0ec5backed No73c275$201 inWon+$73.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed Yes27c166$45 inLost-$44.890%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed Yes25c79.2$20 inLost-$19.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3637…8663backed Yes52c27.34$14 inLost-$14.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.