Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a411b576b27aac02eed866fae3669d5026e513a18a7c3f0873cdb824cd2eeac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 69c | 3,137$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.88 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…ff11backed Yes | 73c | 2,746$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 29c | 924.67$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.37 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 29c | 923.45$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.21 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Yes | 20c | 917$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 28c | 907.45$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.46 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 34c | 826$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 26c | 750.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.95 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 36c | 624$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 15c | 613.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.44 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…c344backed Yes | 71c | 573.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 69c | 450.43$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 368$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 66c | 324$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.53 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…2735backed Yes | 78c | 305.06$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 22c | 253.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 60c | 233$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Yes | 10c | 197.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 156.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 61c | 140.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 35c | 107.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…1940backed Yes | 79c | 102.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5035…cf0dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed No | 30c | 83.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc68…1c00backed Yes | 71c | 70.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 52c | 68.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…501fbacked Yes | 73c | 68.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 66c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…0cccbacked Yes | 29c | 49.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…a1b7backed Yes | 72c | 41.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…e406backed Yes | 65c | 40.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…5da9backed Yes | 71c | 36.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…9c45backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…2903backed No | 41c | 26.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f1…a130backed Yes | 72c | 23.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…9678backed Yes | 71c | 23.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?this page
- Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?Yes won
- Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.