UFC · resolved market
Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e563dadd47dcd4c0adfe3b7760c1d5a23425e642c53b277a2a611ce16fbf142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 76c | 3,679$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.37 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…8730backed Yes | 27c | 1,850$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 78c | 1,509$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…e741backed Yes | 22c | 1,191$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 1,172$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.05 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 78c | 999.97$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 71c | 893.96$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.85 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 23c | 878.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…5a43backed Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…6f83backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes | 20c | 399.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes | 22c | 361.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 75c | 282.59$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 35c | 278.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…f42fbacked No | 79c | 234.19$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…9574backed Yes | 23c | 221.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 75c | 213.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…d405backed Yes | 24c | 211.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 22c | 207.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x694a…807fbacked Yes | 22c | 134.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83a…a85dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Yes | 49c | 101.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Yes | 22c | 100.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…7f4dbacked Yes | 22c | 94.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…b1a1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 21c | 78.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 76c | 73.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…79bbbacked Yes | 23c | 65.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…6e0abacked Yes | 22c | 51.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5e…feb4backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…efedbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 77c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Paddy Pimblett won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.