UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9aae7c92741dd07d68cd02dab152e5fe47da96adf65007c5938b3b94222c405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 60c | 1,724$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.41 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 65c | 1,720$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.86 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 53c | 1,278$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.12 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…c03bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 706.42$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Yes | 42c | 569.86$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.34 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cab…7a73backed Yes | 38c | 527.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 35c | 385.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…6f83backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c4…3b07backed Yes | 36c | 259.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…3f20backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 59c | 193.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 35c | 176$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 35c | 169.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 148.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…42ecbacked Yes | 36c | 134.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…02a1backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…4920backed Yes | 35c | 95.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…912ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694a…807fbacked Yes | 35c | 70.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0453…6387backed Yes | 36c | 66.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…f42fbacked No | 65c | 64.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e9…9afabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…61b6backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…7e02backed Yes | 50c | 37.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…293abacked No | 69c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…1116backed Yes | 40c | 27.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ae00backed No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad48…3c41backed Yes | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 64c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 66c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Paddy Pimblett won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.