UFC · resolved market
Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b2b47ca902a7c999dec68519bbb7578254e3f99d0b58a34f0086f271d4ea88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 80c | 3,244$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.21 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 20c | 2,765$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 733.01$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.25 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…d306backed Yes | 19c | 699.47$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…9917backed Yes | 18c | 611.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…c7a3backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 19c | 270.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…8f92backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5733…4c87backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…0505backed Yes | 19c | 253$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…3fc0backed Yes | 19c | 241.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…a581backed Yes | 18c | 219.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 191.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569c…140dbacked Yes | 18c | 170.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…06dbbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…3022backed Yes | 19c | 141.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…d9aebacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…9fcdbacked Yes | 20c | 121.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…668dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…725bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…a709backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca13…f3cfbacked Yes | 19c | 100.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f5…7049backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed Yes | 19c | 91.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…1ac0backed Yes | 19c | 89.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…11f2backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 19c | 53.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…b26abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a058backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6545…7ffbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…f42fbacked No | 80c | 27.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Paddy Pimblett won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.