UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59e82f05e49e3b8b0524126be30f41b5db43186ef3eb720ad62df86f3b4ba87f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebbe…04b0backed No | 1c | 2,415$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…0561backed Yes | 37c | 1,477$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 63c | 1,389$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.25 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 487.91$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.29 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…65cdbacked Yes | 41c | 484.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 63c | 405.06$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 64c | 381.53$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.57 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Yes | 36c | 278.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 62c | 190.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 56c | 169.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 38c | 145.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 38c | 143.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 65c | 132.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…e9c7backed Yes | 43c | 117.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…725bbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 59c | 78.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…02a1backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 68.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…84cfbacked Yes | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1523backed Yes | 37c | 54.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5d…da56backed Yes | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…be96backed Yes | 36c | 46.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…1d50backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…58cabacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…63afbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…66d7backed Yes | 37c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 30.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…58eebacked No | 64c | 29.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…d697backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…9582backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe298…8ca9backed Yes | 42c | 24.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed No | 62c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Paddy Pimblett won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.