UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82abd1747e373f18fc056e4857a27244d4396cead50214e02be3a9b817a26ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 72c | 16,097$11,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,552.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 28c | 6,215$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.78 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 28c | 3,808$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked No | 71c | 3,652$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 33c | 3,500$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 18c | 2,337$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.52 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,157$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.82 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.52 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cc…85edbacked Yes | 38c | 794.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 62c | 790.35$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.33 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes | 39c | 764.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 31c | 683$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 61c | 499.28$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 34c | 454.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 29c | 445.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 27c | 375$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked No | 68c | 367.88$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Yes | 25c | 311.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 64c | 280.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…8f92backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 31c | 248.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…23dfbacked No | 66c | 224.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 62c | 208.06$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…fabfbacked No | 60c | 196.01$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed No | 70c | 174.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 38c | 170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 151.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…98babacked No | 69c | 149$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Yes | 26c | 133.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…8d47backed Yes | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed No | 63c | 104.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 64c | 87.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…6f83backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6348…64cdbacked No | 67c | 79.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…16c4backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ae3ebacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…515fbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec9…49ccbacked Yes | 39c | 63.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 67c | 57.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…f6d7backed Yes | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…7e8bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…ac2dbacked No | 67c | 35.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed No | 71c | 31.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…c83fbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 38c | 29.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44f…ae10backed No | 69c | 29.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +41%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 63c | 21.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…ed4dbacked No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 65c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Paddy Pimblett won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.