UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef62eab027b9cf8e1787f4e2c50aa4579664c664de9922f4096abd672d1d8ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed Under | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 43c | 6,589$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.27 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 5,451$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.37 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 59c | 2,954$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.25 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd7…401fbacked Over | 45c | 2,465$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…292bbacked Over | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Over | 43c | 2,372$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 56c | 2,200$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 1,494$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.69 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 45c | 1,106$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 43c | 651$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.93 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 59c | 510.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.36 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 56c | 429.12$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.81 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…3d49backed Over | 47c | 394.34$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Over | 41c | 350$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Under | 57c | 307.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 54c | 302$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 58c | 215.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…fef5backed Over | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Over | 45c | 114.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…3a6bbacked Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Under | 58c | 92.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Under | 55c | 89.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…5ce6backed Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…62f1backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…b26abacked Over | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…4a87backed Under | 58c | 32.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 41c | 27.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Paddy Pimblett won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.