UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a0a1887d37e2175f1c7db5e8d27113da7a5a34ae800bd06d73e69b088e44bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 3,479$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.84 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 54c | 2,462$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Over | 52c | 1,852$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Under | 49c | 1,660$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 333.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Over | 52c | 330$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.95 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…5201backed Under | 52c | 329.46$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 51c | 295.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 236.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked Under | 49c | 205.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 48c | 125.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 51c | 92.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 50c | 71.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Over | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…3f39backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 50c | 33.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…f0e9backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)Quillan Salkilld won
- Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.