UFC · resolved market
Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x991779e573c7a48ac762d83e446e849145ada6f30d922a8572b7c0a9d77a4dc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 71c | 2,906$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 29c | 2,651$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.79 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 67c | 2,489$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.72 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…3f10backed Yes | 33c | 2,121$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 28c | 254.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 66c | 213.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 69c | 205.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 36c | 166.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Yes | 32c | 159.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 72c | 154.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 64c | 126.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 119.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 103.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8595…8ec8backed Yes | 33c | 97.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Yes | 32c | 92.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…63afbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Yes | 31c | 80.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x971d…19bcbacked Yes | 20c | 80.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb88…b23bbacked Yes | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 33c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…a621backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…f42fbacked No | 68c | 48.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 32c | 43.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 62c | 35.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Brandon Royval won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.