UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706ac30c22868ff57658e8872de371a2c494a09afb6933cf53b3a1f9a6154da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 54c | 6,968$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 57c | 5,028$2,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.68 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 59c | 4,182$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.71 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Under | 41c | 4,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 62c | 1,761$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.11 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 61c | 1,490$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…ce0cbacked Over | 13c | 1,400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +660.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 63c | 1,266$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.66 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 37c | 1,002$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 60c | 589.81$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.74 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 39c | 462.54$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c84…f6fcbacked Over | 14c | 432.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +558.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 40c | 381.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 36c | 248.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 39c | 207$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Under | 39c | 166.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c5b9backed Over | 60c | 110.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 40c | 101.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 40c | 101.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 40c | 101.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Over | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 37c | 87.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…e0b3backed Under | 40c | 49.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12de…bb0fbacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…bf9fbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Over | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Over | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 61c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Brandon Royval won
- Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.