UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b52c4cc781347943ed691dc6ebaf5186689c4935c4efe668522c1226d3f07da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 56c | 2,500$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.59 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 2,297$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.73 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 55c | 618.05$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.76 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed No | 42c | 240.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Yes | 54c | 197.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 48c | 162.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8f…909fbacked Yes | 68c | 115.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Yes | 51c | 108.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed No | 46c | 107.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…238bbacked No | 46c | 104.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700d…924dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 43c | 93.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 51c | 80.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed No | 49c | 80.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 71c | 70.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Yes | 43c | 52.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…8e66backed No | 62c | 46.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…c340backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…30f9backed Yes | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 32.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Brandon Royval won
- Will Lone'er Kavanagh win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.