UFC · resolved market
Will Magomed Ankalaev win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x757eebbc8375a3d6903d4784f715ddedc77a39352369db1cdd0f8dfc5bf44f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 60c | 2,330$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.33 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 40c | 2,038$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.81 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 69c | 1,127$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.24 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 60c | 950$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 40c | 880.64$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Yes | 30c | 667.33$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.75 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 35c | 305$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…eef1backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Yes | 59c | 204.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…5be9backed Yes | 32c | 123.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 41c | 117.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88c…078fbacked Yes | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 50c | 101.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Yes | 60c | 80.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 42c | 75.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 70c | 59.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…473ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Yes | 60c | 54.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…b321backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd765…f8ddbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4c…d7efbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…bebdbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…bec3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Yes | 60c | 31.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 31.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…c8dfbacked Yes | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Magomed Ankalaev win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Magomed Ankalaev won
- Will Bogdan Guskov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.