UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1805b9a24ef42276ea6981b6a01381844022b84f77204e335c8b9d8923adc075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 52c | 13,462$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 8,264$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,265.98 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 7,234$3,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,770.55 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 51c | 4,471$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…96c6backed Under | 52c | 3,232$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 51c | 1,645$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.45 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 1,319$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.48 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.97 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 50c | 716.93$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.47 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 50c | 684$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Under | 49c | 417.07$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Over | 57c | 406.79$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 50c | 403.07$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.54 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…cef5backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Over | 51c | 269$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Over | 46c | 262$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Under | 49c | 253.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…cd25backed Over | 45c | 235.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Over | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 134.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Under | 52c | 131.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…c606backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf128…d77fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…bc60backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Under | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…f601backed Under | 48c | 42.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Over | 51c | 40.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd7…0c4fbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked Over | 51c | 38.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Under | 52c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Magomed Ankalaev won
- Will Bogdan Guskov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Magomed Ankalaev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.