UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf545163cca44840b034714358411f20cb1d553c7cdeed6e306499bcae01c68aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 19c | 10,521$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.03 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1320…f448backed Yes | 0c | 3,092$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4205…128ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,796$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Yes | 24c | 2,620$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 75c | 2,026$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 1,388$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.58 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed No | 33c | 1,358$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.66 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 43c | 1,306$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.66 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 54c | 1,003$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.69 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 49c | 850.8$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.01 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 71c | 750.93$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 68c | 522.56$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes | 28c | 397.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 77c | 354$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 63c | 336.71$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.84 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Yes | 24c | 308.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Yes | 24c | 263.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 60c | 248$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 56c | 237.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 33c | 222$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Yes | 70c | 143.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…77c4backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 46c | 111.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 30c | 95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…314cbacked Yes | 68c | 87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 24c | 78.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 60c | 69.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 46.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aaf…5394backed No | 76c | 44.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Yes | 53c | 42.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…fa18backed Yes | 54c | 42.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Yes | 59c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 37.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 47c | 29.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 47c | 28.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 26.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 61c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Magomed Ankalaev won
- Will Bogdan Guskov win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Magomed Ankalaev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.