Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e119183e95345e47e48b8a49ea3febe5c260dc95757ebc308be3213217e501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 41,157$27,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,604.89 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 32c | 34,826$11,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,681.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 3,359$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.52 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 30c | 2,643$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.9 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 32c | 1,818$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.24 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 59c | 1,787$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.44 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 23c | 1,599$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Over | 51c | 1,500$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 1,063$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.04 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 26c | 1,019$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.17 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 29c | 881.31$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 684.82$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.34 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 32c | 550$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 32c | 450$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 367$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Over | 32c | 296.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 289.83$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 49c | 275.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 51c | 269.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 67c | 219.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 66c | 214.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 49c | 203.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 25c | 159.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 27c | 154.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Over | 32c | 153.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 65c | 142.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 32c | 138.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…5fd6backed Over | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 41c | 95.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 95.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 92.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 32c | 81.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Over | 31c | 73.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 68.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 57c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed Under | 58c | 51.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 23c | 46.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 30 | 86.7%26 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 45.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 48c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 70c | 39.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Under | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 70c | 37.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 49c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Over | 51c | 30.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…9a65backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…865bbacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 72c | 24.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…3422backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.