Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x768571a684c208f0c5b6d4d8927fa1c46bf5341a9321ebc74afc9afe3b5f97d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 11,892$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,353.34 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 18c | 1,836$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 15c | 1,203$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.94 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 27c | 915$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.46 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 13c | 833.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 40c | 742.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 735.92$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.29 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 27c | 640.74$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…cc36backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…83dbbacked Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 469.57$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.02 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 458.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 457.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.28 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 41c | 389.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.96 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 62c | 362.35$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 310$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…4487backed Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 44c | 140.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Over | 27c | 133.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 14c | 96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 14c | 96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 72c | 64.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…b973backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 75c | 26.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b77…80e6backed Under | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.