Champions League · resolved market
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422a3bcf1324f85869f6ad92e6c5cd41543e2bd6ad1f9af8094cb18cd4e4d8f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 66c | 3,038$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.68 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 11c | 1,382$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…c3f4backed Yes | 24c | 1,294$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…2023backed Yes | 32c | 1,082$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…ea7abacked Yes | 36c | 1,068$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 27c | 872.67$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.67 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 79c | 813.82$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…0d1bbacked Yes | 35c | 642.86$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 79c | 608.2$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes | 31c | 499.87$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 497.92$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 30c | 479.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 70c | 445.72$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.72 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 346.2$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 25c | 343$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 68c | 270.23$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Yes | 33c | 265.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 40c | 252.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 244$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…e2ddbacked No | 68c | 220$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…58cebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 188.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 164.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 22c | 141.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…27aabacked Yes | 33c | 141$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 31c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…9c1dbacked Yes | 30c | 105.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 103.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…cf53backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…e8f8backed Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 20c | 82.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 68c | 76.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…6161backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed No | 73c | 71.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed Yes | 30c | 69.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…e895backed Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1224…f346backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…efabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…b050backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 28c | 59.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 28c | 59.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…c43cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…778bbacked Yes | 19c | 55.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 52.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcf…e2febacked Yes | 39c | 51.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…1414backed Yes | 35c | 50.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…6345backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…8a95backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…7505backed Yes | 35c | 43.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…d2cabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 34.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…5edfbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…1d87backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c420backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…6266backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?this page
- Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner?Yes won
- Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Italy be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.