Champions League · resolved market
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2c5bffaa16d0fc17826e7143b34ffa467e6e2cb01765fea963b54323c0b42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 65c | 846.88$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.84 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd961…35debacked Yes | 32c | 654.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…d076backed Yes | 36c | 605$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 20c | 547.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…39d4backed No | 68c | 500.19$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 36c | 435.81$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 26c | 392.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…2023backed Yes | 26c | 387.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 18c | 387.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…3bf0backed Yes | 26c | 386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed No | 71c | 373.51$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 35c | 352.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 323.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 68c | 309.89$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 27c | 306$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 18c | 280.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 74c | 256$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 252.82$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 26c | 226.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 75c | 203.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 24c | 165.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 69c | 152$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 145.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 131.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…2408backed Yes | 24c | 126.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…d2cabacked Yes | 38c | 117.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…fb57backed No | 75c | 114$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…1d9bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…4c77backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…2543backed Yes | 32c | 93.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 70c | 93.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae41…3439backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…f3a0backed Yes | 34c | 88.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 28c | 84.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a6…cfc0backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…4c52backed No | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…74febacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 59.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…077ebacked Yes | 26c | 56.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 65c | 52.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…7fa8backed Yes | 39c | 51.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 50.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…6345backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb2…8ad4backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 35c | 43.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 25c | 41.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed Yes | 35c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 35.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…b545backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 29.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…f793backed Yes | 41c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 65c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner?this page
- Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner?Yes won
- Will a team from Italy be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.