Champions League · resolved market
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x582deddec9e371ede95b6884df883ccc477204aceff7ef1a1175f3091860aff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b73…66f2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd961…35debacked Yes | 56c | 9,193$5,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.79 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed No | 44c | 7,523$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.1 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Yes | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 40c | 4,610$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.81 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…d6c1backed Yes | 56c | 2,647$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked No | 43c | 2,029$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…e483backed No | 42c | 1,530$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 42c | 1,389$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 18c | 1,333$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.51 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 12c | 1,218$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.6 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 42c | 1,015$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 43c | 902.43$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.04 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 745$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…28d2backed Yes | 56c | 700$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 68c | 565.26$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 531.55$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 62c | 432.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 37c | 403.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…8087backed No | 43c | 319.45$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Yes | 27c | 220.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…8854backed Yes | 54c | 181.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…0b81backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…37ecbacked Yes | 58c | 170.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…298abacked Yes | 59c | 166.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…e285backed Yes | 59c | 164.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…e430backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 16c | 148.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 16c | 127.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…144ebacked No | 63c | 122.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…5311backed Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 11c | 115.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145f…76a2backed Yes | 59c | 113.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…6ac9backed Yes | 59c | 101.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 100.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 209 | 16.7%35 W · 174 L | -36.8wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 41c | 97.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7fa5backed Yes | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 58c | 84.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…bcecbacked Yes | 59c | 82.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Yes | 58c | 81.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…5394backed Yes | 55c | 80.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65d…516abacked Yes | 31c | 80.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 60c | 76.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…5065backed Yes | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…bb75backed Yes | 55c | 62.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe420…1747backed Yes | 20c | 58.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16dd…adf5backed Yes | 19c | 53.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb1…a0d6backed Yes | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 51.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…ef3bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ca9dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…710fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5a…e710backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 24c | 44.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…2756backed No | 43c | 38.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…56f4backed Yes | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…c524backed Yes | 53c | 34.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…30f0backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…611abacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 30.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 65c | 28.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…36d1backed No | 43c | 28.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 25.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…3149backed Yes | 57c | 24.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed Yes | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 47cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…809ebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…5630backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…f781backed Yes | 59c | 17.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner?this page
- Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Italy be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Portugal be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
- Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.