F1 · resolved market
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23dda3fef13edfc6a9fa89820afd211e911da0c4602f7f1bada02c28d0a3f163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 64c | 558.86$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.73 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 65c | 508.39$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 35c | 368.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 34c | 358.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 26c | 256.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 63c | 218.92$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 38c | 148$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 34c | 146.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 76c | 145.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 66c | 144.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…b9c9backed Yes | 23c | 139.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…c23cbacked No | 69c | 130.93$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 34c | 105.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 67c | 90.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…3589backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…55d1backed No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 29c | 54.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 53.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 31c | 50.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…163abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes | 37c | 46.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 68c | 41.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 27c | 39.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 35c | 37.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c6…97aebacked Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…705dbacked No | 63c | 26.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…1da3backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535a…6557backed No | 72c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…fc2fbacked No | 68c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.