UFC · resolved market
Will Terrance McKinney win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a709450d634567909ecbb513e5d84fb5f4a05bc18edc81f1d1da2c4d4094e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 1,408$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.04 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 37c | 813.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 63c | 511.89$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Yes | 38c | 492.76$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 65c | 347.45$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Yes | 37c | 302.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 34c | 283.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 60c | 202.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 62c | 199.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 46c | 194.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 239 | 61.5%147 W · 92 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 61c | 130.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 48c | 128.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b3b5backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 62c | 115.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Yes | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 39c | 63.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 65c | 61.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…0544backed Yes | 40c | 52.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…a433backed Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…2b21backed Yes | 39c | 47.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c6…57dcbacked Yes | 37c | 38.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…3c36backed Yes | 41c | 37.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…f6d7backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…a15fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 68c | 30.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 68c | 26.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Terrance McKinney win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)King Green won
- Will King Green win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.