UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e6755ba5c0a549a3ab77ff8cfc9bd450cde03c1512aa487874120924321dc7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 26c | 10,362$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.01 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Over | 31c | 8,176$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.62 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 74c | 8,105$5,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.39 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 24c | 4,321$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.04 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 69c | 4,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 72c | 3,367$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.31 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…3f10backed Over | 31c | 3,255$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Under | 74c | 2,026$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Over | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 26c | 1,768$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.04 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Over | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Over | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…0812backed Over | 3c | 1,571$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 26c | 1,556$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.24 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…fdc1backed Under | 73c | 1,463$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 16c | 1,384$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.4 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 74c | 1,113$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…fef5backed Over | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 72c | 972.22$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.22 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under | 71c | 962.49$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…f610backed Over | 31c | 783.02$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Under | 79c | 700$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 28c | 510.37$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 74c | 398.23$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Under | 78c | 367.62$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 74c | 335.7$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed Over | 31c | 324.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 73c | 309.69$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 78c | 213.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc51…f872backed Under | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Under | 71c | 163$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed Over | 32c | 157.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…16c4backed Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 70c | 101.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcd…d3b4backed Under | 74c | 101.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 70c | 100.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…d5afbacked Over | 31c | 86.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under | 73c | 75.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…ad8fbacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Under | 72c | 57.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 76c | 52.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Under | 74c | 51.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…f7d7backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8f…df9abacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1995backed Over | 24c | 48.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Under | 74c | 42.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…ac2dbacked Under | 72c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Under | 75c | 32.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Under | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 75c | 29.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 77c | 28.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)King Green won
- Will King Green win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Terrance McKinney win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.