Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x329be0803b22f15c07c30a1729c0fbaeb7bb30b81a2652f2a9cc153953d5edcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,292 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfece…8b97backed No | 47c | 777.39$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 34c | 506.67$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 35c | 501.35$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 35c | 480.03$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.02 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 37c | 396.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 80c | 328$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 20c | 328$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Yes | 64c | 310.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…4bd3backed Yes | 65c | 305.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…2937backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 29c | 272.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 34c | 245.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…6eafbacked Yes | 64c | 221.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…8bacbacked No | 78c | 188.17$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…444bbacked Yes | 66c | 151.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Yes | 69c | 91.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d1…a021backed Yes | 66c | 89.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…022dbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ff…8c57backed Yes | 64c | 62.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d6…c897backed Yes | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 79c | 38.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Yes | 64c | 28.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…261dbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…ab20backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?this page
- Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Braga reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Celta reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Ferencváros reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Genk reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Midtjylland reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Panathinaikos reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Yes won
- Will Roma reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?No won
- Will Stuttgart reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.