MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1ea06dd00b983d317822e31d8a3cec81dccba15e2aaa8cc3ce5458c0f489c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Yes | 41c | 5,072$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.75 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 4,537$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 42c | 4,034$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.74 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 59c | 2,542$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 58c | 2,510$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 2,021$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 1,731$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.7 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 1,253$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.51 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 56c | 1,127$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.12 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 59c | 1,051$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 1,031$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 58c | 886.21$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.14 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 58c | 697$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.58 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 57c | 646.12$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.01 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 58c | 605.26$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 58c | 516.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 58c | 352.61$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…e762backed No | 58c | 261$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…8fd9backed No | 58c | 258.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 59c | 211.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 199.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 56c | 178.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 55c | 163.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 58c | 140.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 58c | 137.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 58c | 103$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…7bcbbacked No | 58c | 76.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 41c | 51.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 56c | 49.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 42c | 49.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 45c | 42.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…5581backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 57c | 38.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked No | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…6068backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 41c | 26.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed No | 58c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 58c | 21.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.