MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x433d4e35a612fd33a0eea03fcfddf02d7a00e65dcc5246b40f644bd757b12432
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 51c | 9,532$4,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,861.33 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 4,150$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 2,923$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 2,438$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.38 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 1,979$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 51c | 1,907$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.57 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 48c | 1,907$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.53 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,607$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 71c | 1,398$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.09 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 49c | 1,225$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.75 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 26c | 1,191$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 1,059$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.09 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 49c | 738.89$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.83 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 494.2$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.04 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 30c | 329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 51c | 213.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 49c | 204.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…6416backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 138$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 133.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 61c | 124.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 112.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 105.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 32c | 94.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 38c | 89.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 49c | 83.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 49c | 82.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Under | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 50c | 42.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 40.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…88f7backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 28.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…4a19backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 20.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 50c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.