MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2754db1d6357e0d08ff179dc26c294b9e0904a674f22650d392a09ff37df0534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c9c…91e9backed Yes | 42c | 5,420$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 58c | 3,441$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.75 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 2,020$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.08 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 43c | 1,392$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.56 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 1,254$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked No | 58c | 1,186$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 55c | 721$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.45 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 56c | 625.18$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.18 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed No | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 58c | 494.83$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.83 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Yes | 43c | 469.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 57c | 443.83$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.36 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 365$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 57c | 351.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 43c | 337$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 33c | 320$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 57c | 275$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 56c | 177.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 43c | 177.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 174.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 44c | 169.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 163$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 75c | 140.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 132$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 57c | 117$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 46c | 65.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 56c | 44.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6669…42b5backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 44c | 35.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8201backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…0a3ebacked No | 58c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.