MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb576146184edff91fbc1d2b9c36bd07305e64b635c8b4a02a83e9c59738c7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 60,416$27,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,004.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 58,283$32,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,527.06 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 8,414$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,542.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 3,358$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.25 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 53c | 2,115$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.74 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 1,941$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.14 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,849$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,305$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.7 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 1,294$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.87 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 1,170$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 866.17$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 855.36$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 73c | 638.35$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 391.65$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.61 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 54c | 385.53$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.63 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 46c | 332.21$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 305$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 50c | 285$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 46c | 283.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 280$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 277.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 49c | 250.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 34c | 155$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Under | 51c | 107.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 55c | 100.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 56c | 79.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Under | 77c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 54c | 52.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1c…d47dbacked Under | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 50.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Under | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 46c | 31.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 56c | 29.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 54c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Under | 51c | 26.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 55c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 55c | 19.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.