MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c1b115879de11707834a77704d4bc6169e1e2696c06f33954e4d5e8cde15fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 55,555$21,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,666.45 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 40,000$24,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 12,530$7,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,874.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 2,132$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.56 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 1,308$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,024$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 527$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 338.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 310$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 260.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 192$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 171.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 160.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 131.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 84.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 80.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 70.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 53.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 36.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f773backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.