MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c1c5f532d9aa37267fb6bf7744190d57013dfc4fca9fd400881f6dfa592713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 65c | 6,229$4,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.3 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 2,200$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 1,493$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.55 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 2c | 961$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 35c | 883.2$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 738$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.01 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 714.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 35c | 620.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 26c | 512.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 35c | 398.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 388.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 34c | 369.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 288.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 36c | 276$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 79c | 245.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 65c | 165.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f325backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 148.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 64c | 86.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 36c | 72.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 70c | 57.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 34c | 52.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 74c | 46.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 36c | 41.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.