TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8c4…395dbacked No51c3,900$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,91169453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes49c3,088$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.213,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Yes49c2,720$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.6284049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes49c1,899$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.548653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed No52c1,442$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.1620455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Yes48c1,131$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.981,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes51c1,030$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.491,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b5…2ff8backed No51c1,000$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4884833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes49c989.52$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.468,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked No49c984.38$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.0355653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Yes52c969.95$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50053448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked No52c552.86$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.866656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes49c540.44$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.864,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25018658.6%109 W · 77 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…712dbacked No51c490$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.19950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Yes49c470$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.332652.5%171 W · 155 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed No48c399.8$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.977647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed No50c371.42$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9228152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992d…75b7backed No51c313.73$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.738058.8%47 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b25…edc5backed No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1507846.2%36 W · 42 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked No51c250$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1423052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1305,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked No52c240.38$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3817952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes51c229.64$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.822,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011258%65 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013345.9%61 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a0…8b8cbacked No51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed No51c196.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0716552.7%87 W · 78 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed No51c160$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.442355.6%235 W · 188 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa845…6b8fbacked No50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758351.8%43 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked No50c147.72$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.869446.8%44 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…26e3backed No51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0619454.6%106 W · 88 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No51c123.19$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1278155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b5…fd79backed No50c122.31$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6318556.2%104 W · 81 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed No51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6519754.8%108 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee8a…69acbacked No50c105$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.514655.5%81 W · 65 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes49c101$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.062,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027552.4%144 W · 131 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked No51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.043850%19 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a0…a986backed No51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.043046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes49c98.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.049,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94c…944dbacked No51c82.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.353655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa422…d210backed No51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4312555.2%69 W · 56 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bd…f540backed No51c67.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0213250.8%67 W · 65 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0477…631cbacked No51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8217155.6%95 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…2c65backed No51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8221954.8%120 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.523255.2%128 W · 104 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No51c48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5214751.7%76 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Yes49c44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4879955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed No52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4613748.2%66 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0460…7137backed No52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4612352.8%65 W · 58 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeccc…f0f8backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158653.5%46 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1522257.7%128 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32e2…af02backed No51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.713850.7%70 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes48c29.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes51c28.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.567842.3%33 W · 45 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed No52c26.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9228751.9%149 W · 138 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed No51c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5735652.5%187 W · 169 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4056…f839backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.