MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5bbd705f2fb8539db8bc805f5abd53984a38cc96ab0c7e890c3795d9b456c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 51c | 3,900$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 49c | 3,088$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 49c | 2,720$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.62 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,899$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.5 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.16 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 48c | 1,131$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,030$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.49 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed No | 51c | 1,000$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 989.52$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 49c | 984.38$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.03 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 52c | 969.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 52c | 552.86$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.86 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 49c | 540.44$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.86 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 49c | 470$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 48c | 399.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 50c | 371.42$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.92 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed No | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 51c | 250$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 229.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…8b8cbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked No | 50c | 147.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 51c | 123.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 50c | 122.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 275 | 52.4%144 W · 131 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 51c | 67.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 49c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 48c | 29.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 51c | 28.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…f839backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.